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Padova vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
M. Bortolussi 84'
4/12/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 34Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Padova38%
×Draw26%
Empoli37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.37
Empoli
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Padova
1.10
Empoli
1.27

allows per match

Padova
1.43
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Padova-0.30scores less
Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Padova or draw
63%
Padova or Empoli
74%
Draw or Empoli
62%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
17%
Empoli wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
75%
Padova 2+ goals
40%
Padova 3+ goals
16%
Empoli 1+ goals
74%
Empoli 2+ goals
39%
Empoli 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
51%
Empoli (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.10 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.37

Empoli attack 1.27 + Padova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padova scores more
38%
level
26%
Empoli scores more
37%

Padova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. FulignatiEmpoliEmpoli · G
8.2

Match Events

36'
Gabriele Guarino
46'
C. Faedo← F. Sgarbi
63'
Carlo Faedo
64'
G. Caprari← F. Di Mariano
72'
P. Ghiglione← A. Capelli
72'
L. Di Maggio← P. Fusi
72'
S. Elia← T. Ebuehi
72'
D. Fila← B. Popov
81'
N. Obaretin← L. Magnino
81'
N. Haas← G. Yepes
84'
M. Bortolussi
85'
Mattia Bortolussi
87'
M. Nasti← B. Moruzzi

Possession

44%Padova

Shots

16Padova

Pass accuracy

48%Padova

Statistics

PadovaEmpoli
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots11
1.33Expected Goals (xG)1.96
4Corners4
20Fouls22
Shots
16Total Shots11
7On Target1
3Off Target4
6Blocked6
14Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
302Total Passes392
214Accurate Passes298
71%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
0.39Goals Prevented0.39
Discipline
20Fouls22
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Padova 1 – 0 Empoli

Padova beat Empoli 1-0 in Serie B on April 12, 2026.

Goals: M. Bortolussi (84').

Empoli controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.