Padova 0–0 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crotone

3/2/2019

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Padova40%

×Draw28%

Crotone32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Padova

1.25

Crotone

1.08

Padova creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

0.97

creates per match

1.12

1.03

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Padova

0.97

Crotone

1.12

allows per match

Padova

1.03

Crotone

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Padova or draw

68%

Padova or Crotone

72%

Draw or Crotone

60%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

18%

Crotone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

71%

Padova 2+ goals

36%

Padova 3+ goals

13%

Crotone 1+ goals

66%

Crotone 2+ goals

29%

Crotone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

56%

Crotone (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Crotone defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Crotone attack 1.12 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Padova scores more

40%

level

28%

Crotone scores more

32%

Padova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Vladimir Golemić

20'

P. Ceccaroni← T. Trevisan

40'

Daniel Cappelletti

45'

Y. Baraye← N. Cherubin

48'

Mario Sampirisi

57'

Mario Sampirisi

57'

Mario Sampirisi

61'

A. Nalini← Ahmed Benali

76'

S. Molina← M. Rohdén

80'

A. Cocco← L. Lollo

80'

Z. Machach← S. Nwankwo

90'

Yves Baraye

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PadovaCrotone

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots6

3Corners7

23Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots6

4On Target3

9Off Target3

Passing

37%Possession63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

23Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1