Padova 0–1 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Benevento

12/27/2018

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Padova32%

×Draw30%

Benevento38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.12

Padova

1.00

Benevento

1.12

Benevento creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 79 away

0.95

creates per match

1.24

1.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Padova

0.95

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Padova

1.00

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Padova or draw

62%

Padova or Benevento

70%

Draw or Benevento

68%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

12%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

63%

Padova 2+ goals

26%

Padova 3+ goals

8%

Benevento 1+ goals

67%

Benevento 2+ goals

31%

Benevento 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

46%

Benevento (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.95 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Benevento attack 1.24 + Padova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padova scores more

32%

level

30%

Benevento scores more

38%

Benevento at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff