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Padova vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ascoli
Ascoli
A. Capello 44'
L. Rosseti 57'
N. Ninković 41' (pen)
4/2/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 31Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Padova41%
×Draw29%
Ascoli31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.22
Ascoli
1.02

Padova creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 119 away

creates per match

Padova
0.95
Ascoli
1.04

allows per match

Padova
1.00
Ascoli
1.49

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Padova or draw
69%
Padova or Ascoli
71%
Draw or Ascoli
59%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
18%
Ascoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
70%
Padova 2+ goals
34%
Padova 3+ goals
12%
Ascoli 1+ goals
64%
Ascoli 2+ goals
27%
Ascoli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
57%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.95 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Padova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padova scores more
41%
level
29%
Ascoli scores more
31%

Padova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
N. NinkovićPenalty
44'
A. Capello↳ L. Lollo
57'
L. Rosseti↳ F. Casarini
66'
Y. Baraye← R. Serena
73'
J. Mbakogu← L. Clemenza
75'
P. Ceccaroni← T. Trevisan
76'
S. Ganz← L. Rosseti
86'
M. Cavion← L. Laverone
90+2'
D. Quaranta← D. Frattesi

Possession

56%Padova

Shots

12Padova

Statistics

PadovaAscoli
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots8
2Corners4
5Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots8
4On Target4
8Off Target4
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls16

Padova 1 – 2 Ascoli

Ascoli beat Padova 2-1 in Serie B on April 2, 2019.

Goals: N. Ninković (41' pen), A. Capello (44'), L. Rosseti (57').

Padova controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.