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Padova U19 vs Renate U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Padova U19
Padova U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Renate U19
Renate U19
11/9/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 8Stadio Silvio Appiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Padova U1938%
×Draw26%
Renate U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova U19
1.36
Renate U19
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Padova U19
1.28
Renate U19
1.07

allows per match

Padova U19
1.56
Renate U19
1.44

finishing

Padova U19+0.00on par
Renate U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova U19 ↓

Renate U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Padova U19 or draw
64%
Padova U19 or Renate U19
74%
Draw or Renate U19
62%

Winning margin

Padova U19 wins by 2+
17%
Renate U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Padova U19 1+ goals
74%
Padova U19 2+ goals
39%
Padova U19 3+ goals
16%
Renate U19 1+ goals
73%
Renate U19 2+ goals
38%
Renate U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Padova U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Renate U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Renate U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova U19 attack 1.28 + Renate U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Renate U19 attack 1.07 + Padova U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padova U19 scores more
38%
level
26%
Renate U19 scores more
36%

Padova U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Padova U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Padova U19 1–2 Renate U19

Renate U19 beat Padova U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Silvio Appiani in Padova.