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Padova U19 vs Modena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Padova U19
Padova U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Modena U19
Modena U19
9/13/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Campo Sportivo Senza Frontiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Padova U1935%
×Draw24%
Modena U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova U19
1.42
Modena U19
1.56

Modena U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

creates per match

Padova U19
1.28
Modena U19
1.55

allows per match

Padova U19
1.56
Modena U19
1.55

finishing

Padova U19+0.00on par
Modena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova U19 ↓

Modena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Padova U19 or draw
59%
Padova U19 or Modena U19
76%
Draw or Modena U19
65%

Winning margin

Padova U19 wins by 2+
16%
Modena U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Padova U19 1+ goals
76%
Padova U19 2+ goals
41%
Padova U19 3+ goals
17%
Modena U19 1+ goals
79%
Modena U19 2+ goals
46%
Modena U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Padova U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Modena U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Modena U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova U19 attack 1.28 + Modena U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Modena U19 attack 1.55 + Padova U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padova U19 scores more
35%
level
24%
Modena U19 scores more
41%

Modena U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Modena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Padova U19 0–0 Modena U19

Padova U19 and Modena U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Senza Frontiere in Abano Terme.