Padova U19 0–1 Genoa U19: Result & Stats

Padova U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Genoa U19

2/25/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 20Stadio Silvio Appiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Padova U1918%

×Draw20%

Genoa U1962%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Padova U19Expected goals in this matchGenoa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.18

Padova U19

1.10

Genoa U19

2.18

Genoa U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

1.28

creates per match

2.80

1.56

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Padova U19

1.28

Genoa U19

2.80

allows per match

Padova U19

1.56

Genoa U19

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova U19+0.00on par

Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Padova U19 or draw

38%

Padova U19 or Genoa U19

80%

Draw or Genoa U19

82%

Winning margin

Padova U19 wins by 2+

7%

Genoa U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Padova U19 1+ goals

67%

Padova U19 2+ goals

30%

Padova U19 3+ goals

10%

Genoa U19 1+ goals

89%

Genoa U19 2+ goals

64%

Genoa U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova U19 attack 1.28 + Genoa U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Genoa U19 attack 2.80 + Padova U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Padova U19 scores more

18%

level

20%

Genoa U19 scores more

62%

Genoa U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff