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Padova U19 vs Como U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Padova U19
Padova U19
FT
6 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Como U19
Como U19
4/27/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 28Campo Sportivo Senza Frontiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Padova U1928%
×Draw23%
Como U1949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova U19
1.31
Como U19
1.82

Como U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

creates per match

Padova U19
1.28
Como U19
2.08

allows per match

Padova U19
1.56
Como U19
1.33

finishing

Padova U19+0.00on par
Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova U19 ↓

Como U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Padova U19 or draw
51%
Padova U19 or Como U19
77%
Draw or Como U19
72%

Winning margin

Padova U19 wins by 2+
12%
Como U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Padova U19 1+ goals
73%
Padova U19 2+ goals
38%
Padova U19 3+ goals
14%
Como U19 1+ goals
84%
Como U19 2+ goals
54%
Como U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Padova U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Como U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova U19 attack 1.28 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Como U19 attack 2.08 + Padova U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Padova U19 scores more
28%
level
23%
Como U19 scores more
49%

Como U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padova U19 vs Como U19

Padova U19 beat Como U19 6-4 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Senza Frontiere in Abano Terme.