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Padinska Skela vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Padinska Skela
Padinska Skela
FT
1 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
4/21/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 24Stadion FK PKB Padinska Skela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Padinska Skela46%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padinska Skela
1.37
Sindjelic Beograd
0.97

Padinska Skela creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 49 away

creates per match

Padinska Skela
1.36
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Padinska Skela
1.07
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Padinska Skela+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padinska Skela ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Padinska Skela or draw
73%
Padinska Skela or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
54%

Winning margin

Padinska Skela wins by 2+
22%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Padinska Skela 1+ goals
75%
Padinska Skela 2+ goals
40%
Padinska Skela 3+ goals
16%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
62%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
25%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Padinska Skela (draw refunded)
63%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padinska Skela at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padinska Skela attack 1.36 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Padinska Skela defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Padinska Skela scores more
46%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
27%

Padinska Skela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Padinska Skela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Padinska Skela 1–1 Sindjelic Beograd

Padinska Skela and Sindjelic Beograd drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK PKB Padinska Skela in Padinska Skela.