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Padideh Khorasan vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
3/6/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan35%
×Draw32%
Tractor Sazi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
0.98
Tractor Sazi
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 116 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Tractor Sazi
1.16

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Tractor Sazi
0.96

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
67%
Padideh Khorasan or Tractor Sazi
68%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
65%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
13%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
62%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
26%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
8%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
61%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
24%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
52%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Tractor Sazi attack 1.16 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
35%
level
32%
Tractor Sazi scores more
33%

Padideh Khorasan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Tractor Sazi

Padideh Khorasan and Tractor Sazi drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium in Mashhad.