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Padideh Khorasan vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
2/22/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Imam Reza Stadium (Mashhad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Padideh Khorasan50%
×Draw29%
Sepidrood Rasht21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
1.27
Sepidrood Rasht
0.70

Padideh Khorasan creates 81% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
79%
Padideh Khorasan or Sepidrood Rasht
71%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
50%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
23%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
72%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
36%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
14%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
50%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
16%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
71%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
50%
level
29%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
21%

Padideh Khorasan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Sepidrood Rasht

Padideh Khorasan beat Sepidrood Rasht 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Reza Stadium (Mashhad).