Padideh Khorasan 2–0 Paykan: Result & Stats

Padideh Khorasan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paykan

3/6/2021

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Imam Reza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan41%

×Draw31%

Paykan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Padideh KhorasanExpected goals in this matchPaykan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.82

Padideh Khorasan

1.08

Paykan

0.82

Padideh Khorasan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 100 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

0.73

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan

1.00

Paykan

0.91

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan

0.73

Paykan

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Paykan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw

73%

Padideh Khorasan or Paykan

69%

Draw or Paykan

59%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+

17%

Paykan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals

66%

Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals

29%

Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals

10%

Paykan 1+ goals

56%

Paykan 2+ goals

20%

Paykan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)

60%

Paykan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paykan attack 0.91 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more

41%

level

31%

Paykan scores more

27%

Padideh Khorasan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff