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Padideh Khorasan vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
12/24/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan30%
×Draw32%
Esteghlal FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
0.88
Esteghlal FC
1.02

Esteghlal FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 116 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
62%
Padideh Khorasan or Esteghlal FC
68%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
70%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
10%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
59%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
22%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
6%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
64%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
27%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
45%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
30%
level
32%
Esteghlal FC scores more
38%

Esteghlal FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Padideh Khorasan 3-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 24, 2021.

The match was played at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium in Mashhad.