Paderborn U19 2–0 Viktoria Köln U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoria Köln U19

T. de Jong 82', 9'

4/13/2024

U19 Bundesliga · West - 22Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paderborn U1955%

×Draw21%

Viktoria Köln U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.39

Paderborn U19

2.17

Viktoria Köln U19

1.39

Paderborn U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 67 away

2.34

creates per match

1.46

1.32

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Viktoria Köln U19

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

76%

Paderborn U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

79%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

45%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

33%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

89%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

64%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

36%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

75%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

40%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.17

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

24%

Paderborn U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

T. de Jong

65'

G. Jácome-Fontana← M. Theiß

68'

A. Amyn← H. Ali

68'

D. Tshimanga← R. Preßler

77'

N. Czapelka← Hassan Mohammad

82'

A. Hoti← L. Soldanski

82'

T. de Jong

83'

A. Spago← F. Babak

83'

E. Delifer← T. de Jong

Paderborn

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Jong

Gleissner

Manager: I. Kalkan

65'▲G. Jácome-Fontana←▼M. Theiß

77'▲N. Czapelka←▼Hassan Mohammad

83'▲A. Spago←▼F. Babak

83'▲E. Delifer←▼T. de Jong

Paderborn U19 substitutes

Jácome-FontanaCzapelkaSpagoDeliferTahiriHildesheim

Manager: M. Wilhelm

68'▲A. Amyn←▼H. Ali

68'▲D. Tshimanga←▼R. Preßler

82'▲A. Hoti←▼L. Soldanski

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

AmynTshimangaHotiM'BoyoAydinLabonteKuzub

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 2–0 Viktoria Köln U19

Paderborn U19 beat Viktoria Köln U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 13, 2024.

Goals: T. de Jong (9', 82').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 2–0 Viktoria Köln U19