Paderborn U19 0–3 Schalke 04 U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Schalke 04 U19

12/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 11Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Paderborn U1942%

×Draw23%

Schalke 04 U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.63

Paderborn U19

1.79

Schalke 04 U19

1.63

Paderborn U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

2.33

creates per match

1.93

1.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.33

Schalke 04 U19

1.93

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.33

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

65%

Paderborn U19 or Schalke 04 U19

77%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

58%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

22%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

83%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

53%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

26%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

80%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

48%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.33 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Schalke 04 U19 attack 1.93 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

35%

Paderborn U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff