Paderborn U19 3–0 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Osnabrück U19

C. Agirayak 67'

J. Markötter 51'

H. Koch 20'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paderborn U1961%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1920%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.31

Paderborn U19

2.42

Osnabrück U19

1.31

Paderborn U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 73 away

2.34

creates per match

1.29

1.32

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

80%

Paderborn U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

39%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

40%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

91%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

69%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

43%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

73%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

38%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.42

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

20%

Paderborn U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

H. Koch

51'

J. Markötter

56'

O. Fehring← R. Shivani

67'

C. Agirayak

68'

F. Cramer← L. Bukvić

68'

J. Völkerding← L. Uwandu

68'

V. Bischoff← E. Zucht

71'

A. Altay← J. Markötter

73'

78'

E. Gündoğdu← H. Koch

78'

F. Babak← C. Agirayak

78'

M. Theiß← Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

78'

D. Kifel← N. Scheuer

78'

E. Rahe← F. Albrecht

83'

M. Runte← J. Kerlen

83'

R. Kamugira← J. Peters

Paderborn

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Agirayak

⚽

▼

Koch

▼

Naranjo

⚽

▼

Markötter

Manager: I. Kalkan

71'▲A. Altay←▼J. Markötter

78'▲E. Gündoğdu←▼H. Koch

78'▲F. Babak←▼C. Agirayak

78'▲M. Theiß←▼Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

83'▲M. Runte←▼J. Kerlen

83'▲R. Kamugira←▼J. Peters

Paderborn U19 substitutes

AltayGündoğduBabakTheißRunteKamugiraSommer

Manager: A. Ukrow

56'▲O. Fehring←▼R. Shivani

68'▲F. Cramer←▼L. Bukvić

68'▲J. Völkerding←▼L. Uwandu

68'▲V. Bischoff←▼E. Zucht

78'▲D. Kifel←▼N. Scheuer

78'▲E. Rahe←▼F. Albrecht

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

FehringCramerVölkerdingBischoffKifelRaheRemberg