Paderborn U19 4–1 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hilden U19

M. Kojic 90'

I. Ansah 85', 60'

Z. Plavčić 54' (pen)

A. Sari 45'

9/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 4Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paderborn U1962%

×Draw19%

Hilden U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.33

Paderborn U19

2.45

Hilden U19

1.33

Paderborn U19 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 9 away

2.34

creates per match

1.33

1.32

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

80%

Paderborn U19 or Hilden U19

81%

Draw or Hilden U19

38%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

40%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

91%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

70%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

44%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

74%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

38%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.45

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Hilden U19 scores more

20%

Paderborn U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

A. Sari

54'

Z. PlavčićPenalty

60'

I. Ansah

68'

D. Lewandowski← L. Tairi

68'

P. Spittmann← B. Arslanboga

72'

J. Zambrano← Z. Plavčić

72'

N. Mrosek← A. Marino

78'

C. Kayser← S. Schröder

78'

M. Beinhauer← B. Fazlija

82'

L. Horey← P. Kohlstädt

85'

I. Ansah

86'

B. El Ouamari← E. Dervis

90+1'

E. Kerner← L. Flörke

90+1'

N. Czapelka← I. Ansah

90'

M. Kojic

Paderborn

Hilden

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Plavčić

Ermolaev

⚽2

▼

Ansah

Manager: D. Schmitt

72'▲J. Zambrano←▼Z. Plavčić

72'▲N. Mrosek←▼A. Marino

82'▲L. Horey←▼P. Kohlstädt

90+1'▲E. Kerner←▼L. Flörke

90+1'▲N. Czapelka←▼I. Ansah

Paderborn U19 substitutes

ZambranoMrosekHoreyKernerCzapelkaHajiyevBrink

Manager: P. Schütz

68'▲D. Lewandowski←▼L. Tairi

68'▲P. Spittmann←▼B. Arslanboga

78'▲C. Kayser←▼S. Schröder

78'▲M. Beinhauer←▼B. Fazlija

86'▲B. El Ouamari←▼E. Dervis

Hilden U19 substitutes

LewandowskiSpittmannKayserBeinhauerOuamariThesisZorawik

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs Hilden U19

Paderborn U19 beat Hilden U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 3, 2022.

Goals: A. Sari (45'), Z. Plavčić (54' pen), I. Ansah (60', 85'), M. Kojic (90').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Hilden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs Hilden U19