Paderborn U19 6–2 Energie Cottbus U19

Paderborn U19

FT

6 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Energie Cottbus U19

Z. Plavčić 70'

J. Zambrano 66', 57'

P. Kohlstädt 59'

N. Mrosek 46'

G. Ermolaev 35'

M. Kummer 84'

E. Bröse 40'

5/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 3Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Paderborn U1957%

×Draw20%

Energie Cottbus U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.38

Paderborn U19

2.26

Energie Cottbus U19

1.38

Paderborn U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 57 away

2.34

creates per match

1.44

1.32

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Energie Cottbus U19

1.44

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Energie Cottbus U19

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Energie Cottbus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

77%

Paderborn U19 or Energie Cottbus U19

80%

Draw or Energie Cottbus U19

43%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

35%

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

89%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

66%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

39%

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

75%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

40%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Energie Cottbus U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.19 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.26

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.44 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

23%

Paderborn U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

G. Ermolaev

40'

E. Bröse

46'

J. Zambrano← G. Ermolaev

46'

Z. Plavčić← E. Delifer

46'

N. Mrosek

57'

J. Zambrano

58'

L. Delli Liuni← M. Kaya

58'

L. Horey← M. Schulz

59'

P. Kohlstädt

60'

T. Bektaş← I. Tsatiev

66'

J. Zambrano

67'

M. Brink← J. Balzukat

70'

Z. Plavčić

71'

A. Boukara← T. Michalski

71'

A. Glapa← C. Struck

71'

C. Becker← D. Silic

71'

M. Kummer← S. Brüning

84'

M. Kummer

Paderborn

Energie

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ermolaev

▼

Delifer

Manager: D. Schmitt

46'▲J. Zambrano←▼G. Ermolaev

46'▲Z. Plavčić←▼E. Delifer

58'▲L. Delli Liuni←▼M. Kaya

58'▲L. Horey←▼M. Schulz

67'▲M. Brink←▼J. Balzukat

Paderborn U19 substitutes

ZambranoPlavčićLiuniHoreyBrinkZajaczekCzapelka

Manager: F. Adelmann

60'▲T. Bektaş←▼I. Tsatiev

71'▲A. Boukara←▼T. Michalski

71'▲A. Glapa←▼C. Struck

71'▲C. Becker←▼D. Silic

71'▲M. Kummer←▼S. Brüning

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

BektaşBoukaraGlapaBeckerKummerLox

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19

Paderborn U19 beat Energie Cottbus U19 6-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: G. Ermolaev (35'), E. Bröse (40'), N. Mrosek (46'), J. Zambrano (57', 66'), P. Kohlstädt (59'), Z. Plavčić (70'), M. Kummer (84').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19