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Paderborn U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
10/8/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 6Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Paderborn U1934%
×Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn U19
1.76
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.04

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 68 away

creates per match

Paderborn U19
2.33
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.74

allows per match

Paderborn U19
1.33
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.19

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw
55%
Paderborn U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19
79%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
66%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
17%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals
83%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
52%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
26%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
87%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
60%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.33 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.76

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.74 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more
34%
level
21%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
45%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–2 Borussia Dortmund U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Paderborn U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.