Paderborn U19 6–0 Bonner SC U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bonner SC U19

J. Zambrano 81', 65', 56', 32'

M. Schulz 69'

G. Ermolaev 30'

2/26/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 13Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Paderborn U1972%

×Draw16%

Bonner SC U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchBonner SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.06

Paderborn U19

2.72

Bonner SC U19

1.06

Paderborn U19 creates 157% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 10 away

2.34

creates per match

0.80

1.32

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Bonner SC U19

0.80

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Bonner SC U19

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Bonner SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

87%

Paderborn U19 or Bonner SC U19

84%

Draw or Bonner SC U19

28%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

51%

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

93%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

75%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

50%

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

65%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

29%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Bonner SC U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Bonner SC U19 defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.72

Bonner SC U19 attack 0.80 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

72%

level

16%

Bonner SC U19 scores more

13%

Paderborn U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

32'

46'

56'

65'

69'

L. Delli Liuni← G. Pollio

69'

M. Schulz← Z. Plavčić

69'

C. Abresch← N. Tomson

69'

K. Mohylevets← M. Gültekin

69'

M. Schulz

81'

Ö. Koz← M. Kaya

81'

P. Kohlstädt← G. Ermolaev

81'

G. Lanfranco← M. Ojesanmi

81'

L. Qorrolli← E. Cindrak

81'

J. Zambrano

84'

T. Brinkjost← N. Mrosek

Paderborn

Bonner

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽4

▼

⚽

▼

Ermolaev

Manager: D. Schmitt

69'▲L. Delli Liuni←▼G. Pollio

69'▲M. Schulz←▼Z. Plavčić

81'▲Ö. Koz←▼M. Kaya

81'▲P. Kohlstädt←▼G. Ermolaev

84'▲T. Brinkjost←▼N. Mrosek

Paderborn U19 substitutes

LiuniSchulzKozKohlstädtBrinkjostDeliferBalzukat

Manager: M. Ndjeng

46'▲E. Albert←▼E. Ünal

69'▲C. Abresch←▼N. Tomson

69'▲K. Mohylevets←▼M. Gültekin

81'▲G. Lanfranco←▼M. Ojesanmi

81'▲L. Qorrolli←▼E. Cindrak

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

AlbertAbreschMohylevetsLanfrancoQorrolliKalayciFörster

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs Bonner SC U19

Paderborn U19 beat Bonner SC U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 26, 2023.

Goals: G. Ermolaev (30'), J. Zambrano (32', 56', 65', 81'), M. Schulz (69').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Bonner SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paderborn U19 vs Bonner SC U19