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Paderborn II vs Wiedenbrück — League #87 2026

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wiedenbrück
Wiedenbrück
S. Marino 62', 40', 31'
G. Ermolaev 59'
2/8/2026League #87League #87 · West - 21Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paderborn II57%
×Draw23%
Wiedenbrück20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
1.85
Wiedenbrück
1.00

Paderborn II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
1.50
Wiedenbrück
1.00

allows per match

Paderborn II
1.00
Wiedenbrück
2.20

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
Wiedenbrück+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Wiedenbrück →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
80%
Paderborn II or Wiedenbrück
77%
Draw or Wiedenbrück
43%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
33%
Wiedenbrück wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
84%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
55%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
28%
Wiedenbrück 1+ goals
63%
Wiedenbrück 2+ goals
26%
Wiedenbrück 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
74%
Wiedenbrück (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Wiedenbrück away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 1.50 + Wiedenbrück defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Wiedenbrück attack 1.00 + Paderborn II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Paderborn II scores more
57%
level
23%
Wiedenbrück scores more
20%

Paderborn II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
S. Marino
40'
S. Marino
59'
G. Ermolaev
62'
S. Marino
Paderborn
Wiedenbrück
T. Bertels
Manager: T. Bertels
S. Mölders
Manager: S. Mölders

Match Recap: Paderborn II vs Wiedenbrück

Paderborn II beat Wiedenbrück 4-0 in League #87 on February 8, 2026.

Goals: S. Marino (31', 40', 62'), G. Ermolaev (59').

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.