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Paderborn II vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
CANC
13:30
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
11/8/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 12Sportpark Breite Bruch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Paderborn II79%
×Draw13%
Westfalia Herne8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
2.77
Westfalia Herne
0.74

Paderborn II creates 274% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
2.08
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Paderborn II
0.69
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
92%
Paderborn II or Westfalia Herne
87%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
21%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
58%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
94%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
76%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
51%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
52%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
17%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
91%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 2.08 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.77

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Paderborn II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Paderborn II scores more
79%
level
13%
Westfalia Herne scores more
8%

Paderborn II at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paderborn II face Westfalia Herne (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Paderborn II hosting Westfalia Herne. Match starts November 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Paderborn II host Westfalia Herne at Sportpark Breite Bruch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.