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Paderborn II vs Oberneuland — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
CANC
12:30
Oberneuland
Oberneuland
1/22/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Paderborn II47%
×Draw20%
Oberneuland33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
2.33
Oberneuland
1.96

Paderborn II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
1.91
Oberneuland
2.75

allows per match

Paderborn II
1.18
Oberneuland
2.75

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
Oberneuland+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Oberneuland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
67%
Paderborn II or Oberneuland
80%
Draw or Oberneuland
53%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
28%
Oberneuland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
90%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
67%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
41%
Oberneuland 1+ goals
86%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
58%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
58%
Oberneuland (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Oberneuland away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 1.91 + Oberneuland defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.33

Oberneuland attack 2.75 + Paderborn II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Paderborn II scores more
47%
level
20%
Oberneuland scores more
33%

Paderborn II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paderborn II vs Oberneuland — Match Preview

Paderborn II face Oberneuland on January 22, 2022 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Paderborn II host Oberneuland at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 3.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.