Paderborn II 5–0 BW Lohne: Result & Stats

Paderborn II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BW Lohne

M. Lakamper 77'

K. Gleissner 67'

J. Langfeld 56', 54', 34'

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paderborn II58%

×Draw20%

BW Lohne22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn IIExpected goals in this matchBW Lohne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.38

Paderborn II

2.33

BW Lohne

1.38

Paderborn II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

1.67

1.08

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Paderborn II

2.33

BW Lohne

1.67

allows per match

Paderborn II

1.08

BW Lohne

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par

BW Lohne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

BW Lohne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw

78%

Paderborn II or BW Lohne

80%

Draw or BW Lohne

42%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+

37%

BW Lohne wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals

90%

Paderborn II 2+ goals

67%

Paderborn II 3+ goals

41%

BW Lohne 1+ goals

75%

BW Lohne 2+ goals

40%

BW Lohne 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)

73%

BW Lohne (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

BW Lohne away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 2.33 + BW Lohne defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

BW Lohne attack 1.67 + Paderborn II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Paderborn II scores more

58%

level

20%

BW Lohne scores more

22%

Paderborn II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

54'

56'

67'

77'

Paderborn

BW

Manager: T. Bertels

Manager: Uwe Möhrle