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Pacos Ferreira vs Sanjoanense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
11/24/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pacos Ferreira35%
×Draw28%
Sanjoanense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacos Ferreira
1.17
Sanjoanense
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.67
Sanjoanense
1.56

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira
0.83
Sanjoanense
0.67

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par
Sanjoanense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Sanjoanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw
63%
Pacos Ferreira or Sanjoanense
72%
Draw or Sanjoanense
65%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
15%
Sanjoanense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
69%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
33%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
11%
Sanjoanense 1+ goals
70%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
34%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
49%
Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Sanjoanense away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.67 + Sanjoanense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sanjoanense attack 1.56 + Pacos Ferreira defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more
35%
level
28%
Sanjoanense scores more
37%

Sanjoanense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sanjoanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pacos Ferreira vs Sanjoanense

Pacos Ferreira beat Sanjoanense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Paços de Ferreira.