Pacos Ferreira 1–3 Penafiel: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Penafiel

9/1/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 4Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pacos Ferreira44%

×Draw27%

Penafiel29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchPenafiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Pacos Ferreira

1.38

Penafiel

1.05

Pacos Ferreira creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 132 away

1.35

creates per match

1.01

1.09

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.35

Penafiel

1.01

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.09

Penafiel

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Penafiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

71%

Pacos Ferreira or Penafiel

73%

Draw or Penafiel

56%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

21%

Penafiel wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

75%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

40%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

16%

Penafiel 1+ goals

65%

Penafiel 2+ goals

28%

Penafiel 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

61%

Penafiel (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.35 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Penafiel attack 1.01 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

44%

level

27%

Penafiel scores more

29%

Pacos Ferreira at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff