Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Nacional: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nacional

4/14/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 29Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pacos Ferreira41%

×Draw27%

Nacional32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchNacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Pacos Ferreira

1.33

Nacional

1.15

Pacos Ferreira creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 64 away

1.35

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.35

Nacional

1.20

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.09

Nacional

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

68%

Pacos Ferreira or Nacional

73%

Draw or Nacional

59%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

19%

Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

74%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

38%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

15%

Nacional 1+ goals

68%

Nacional 2+ goals

32%

Nacional 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

56%

Nacional (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Nacional away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.35 + Nacional defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nacional attack 1.20 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

41%

level

27%

Nacional scores more

32%

Pacos Ferreira at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff