Pacos Ferreira 1–3 Guimaraes: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Guimaraes

10/19/2024

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pacos Ferreira35%

×Draw24%

Guimaraes40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchGuimaraes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.54

Pacos Ferreira

1.42

Guimaraes

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.67

creates per match

2.25

0.83

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.67

Guimaraes

2.25

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

0.83

Guimaraes

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Guimaraes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

60%

Pacos Ferreira or Guimaraes

76%

Draw or Guimaraes

65%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

16%

Guimaraes wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

76%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

41%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

17%

Guimaraes 1+ goals

79%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

45%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

47%

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.67 + Guimaraes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Guimaraes attack 2.25 + Pacos Ferreira defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

35%

level

24%

Guimaraes scores more

40%

Guimaraes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff