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Pacos Ferreira vs FC Porto B — Segunda Liga 2018

Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Porto B
FC Porto B
11/10/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 11Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pacos Ferreira44%
×Draw26%
FC Porto B30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacos Ferreira
1.44
FC Porto B
1.14

Pacos Ferreira creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 133 away

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.35
FC Porto B
1.18

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.09
FC Porto B
1.53

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par
FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

FC Porto B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw
70%
Pacos Ferreira or FC Porto B
74%
Draw or FC Porto B
56%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
21%
FC Porto B wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
76%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
42%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
18%
FC Porto B 1+ goals
68%
FC Porto B 2+ goals
32%
FC Porto B 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
59%
FC Porto B (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.35 + FC Porto B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Porto B attack 1.18 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more
44%
level
26%
FC Porto B scores more
30%

Pacos Ferreira at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pacos Ferreira vs FC Porto B

Pacos Ferreira and FC Porto B drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Paços de Ferreira.