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Pacatuba vs Itapipoca — Cearense - 2 2019

Pacatuba
Pacatuba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Itapipoca
Itapipoca
3/17/2024Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pacatuba34%
×Draw27%
Itapipoca39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacatuba
1.19
Itapipoca
1.31

Itapipoca creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Pacatuba
0.87
Itapipoca
1.24

allows per match

Pacatuba
1.39
Itapipoca
1.51

finishing

Pacatuba+0.00on par
Itapipoca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacatuba ↓

Itapipoca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pacatuba or draw
61%
Pacatuba or Itapipoca
73%
Draw or Itapipoca
66%

Winning margin

Pacatuba wins by 2+
14%
Itapipoca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pacatuba 1+ goals
70%
Pacatuba 2+ goals
33%
Pacatuba 3+ goals
12%
Itapipoca 1+ goals
73%
Itapipoca 2+ goals
38%
Itapipoca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pacatuba (draw refunded)
46%
Itapipoca (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacatuba at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Itapipoca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacatuba attack 0.87 + Itapipoca defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.19

Itapipoca attack 1.24 + Pacatuba defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pacatuba scores more
34%
level
27%
Itapipoca scores more
39%

Itapipoca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Itapipoca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pacatuba vs Itapipoca

Itapipoca beat Pacatuba 2-0 in Cearense - 2 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas in Fortaleza, Ceará.