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Pacatuba vs Icasa — Cearense - 2 2019

Pacatuba
Pacatuba
FT
1 – 0
Icasa
Icasa
3/11/2023Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pacatuba27%
×Draw29%
Icasa44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacatuba
0.92
Icasa
1.26

Icasa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

creates per match

Pacatuba
0.87
Icasa
1.13

allows per match

Pacatuba
1.39
Icasa
0.97

finishing

Pacatuba+0.00on par
Icasa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacatuba ↓

Icasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pacatuba or draw
56%
Pacatuba or Icasa
71%
Draw or Icasa
73%

Winning margin

Pacatuba wins by 2+
9%
Icasa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pacatuba 1+ goals
60%
Pacatuba 2+ goals
23%
Pacatuba 3+ goals
7%
Icasa 1+ goals
72%
Icasa 2+ goals
36%
Icasa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pacatuba (draw refunded)
38%
Icasa (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacatuba at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Icasa away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacatuba attack 0.87 + Icasa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Icasa attack 1.13 + Pacatuba defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pacatuba scores more
27%
level
29%
Icasa scores more
44%

Icasa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Icasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Pacatuba 1–0 Icasa

Pacatuba beat Icasa 1-0 in Cearense - 2 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo in Pacajus, Ceará.