Pacajus 1–1 Tirol/CEFAT: Result & Stats

Pacajus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tirol/CEFAT

Isac 61'

Albano 45+2' (OG)

3/16/2024

Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pacajus44%

×Draw30%

Tirol/CEFAT26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PacajusExpected goals in this matchTirol/CEFAT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.82

Pacajus

1.16

Tirol/CEFAT

0.82

Pacajus creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

0.94

0.70

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Pacajus

1.20

Tirol/CEFAT

0.94

allows per match

Pacajus

0.70

Tirol/CEFAT

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacajus+0.00on par

Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacajus ↓

Tirol/CEFAT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Pacajus or draw

74%

Pacajus or Tirol/CEFAT

70%

Draw or Tirol/CEFAT

56%

Winning margin

Pacajus wins by 2+

19%

Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pacajus 1+ goals

69%

Pacajus 2+ goals

32%

Pacajus 3+ goals

11%

Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals

56%

Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals

20%

Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pacajus (draw refunded)

63%

Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacajus at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Tirol/CEFAT away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacajus attack 1.20 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tirol/CEFAT attack 0.94 + Pacajus defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pacajus scores more

44%

level

30%

Tirol/CEFAT scores more

26%

Pacajus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pacajus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

AlbanoOwn goal

61'

Isac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff