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PAC Academy vs Rospak — Division One League 2025

PAC Academy
PAC Academy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rospak
Rospak
1/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PAC Academy50%
×Draw26%
Rospak24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAC Academy
1.50
Rospak
0.94

PAC Academy creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

PAC Academy
1.47
Rospak
1.20

allows per match

PAC Academy
0.67
Rospak
1.53

finishing

PAC Academy+0.00on par
Rospak+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAC Academy ↓

Rospak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PAC Academy or draw
76%
PAC Academy or Rospak
74%
Draw or Rospak
50%

Winning margin

PAC Academy wins by 2+
25%
Rospak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PAC Academy 1+ goals
78%
PAC Academy 2+ goals
44%
PAC Academy 3+ goals
19%
Rospak 1+ goals
61%
Rospak 2+ goals
24%
Rospak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

PAC Academy (draw refunded)
68%
Rospak (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAC Academy at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Rospak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAC Academy attack 1.47 + Rospak defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rospak attack 1.20 + PAC Academy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PAC Academy scores more
50%
level
26%
Rospak scores more
24%

PAC Academy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PAC Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: PAC Academy 1–1 Rospak

PAC Academy and Rospak drew 1-1 in Division One League on January 25, 2026.