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PAC Academy vs Nsuopun Fidelity — Division One League 2025

PAC Academy
PAC Academy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
9/28/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PAC Academy49%
×Draw30%
Nsuopun Fidelity21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAC Academy
1.23
Nsuopun Fidelity
0.70

PAC Academy creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

PAC Academy
1.47
Nsuopun Fidelity
0.73

allows per match

PAC Academy
0.67
Nsuopun Fidelity
1.00

finishing

PAC Academy+0.00on par
Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAC Academy ↓

Nsuopun Fidelity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

PAC Academy or draw
79%
PAC Academy or Nsuopun Fidelity
70%
Draw or Nsuopun Fidelity
51%

Winning margin

PAC Academy wins by 2+
22%
Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

PAC Academy 1+ goals
71%
PAC Academy 2+ goals
35%
PAC Academy 3+ goals
13%
Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
50%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
16%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

PAC Academy (draw refunded)
70%
Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAC Academy at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Nsuopun Fidelity away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAC Academy attack 1.47 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 0.73 + PAC Academy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PAC Academy scores more
49%
level
30%
Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
21%

PAC Academy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PAC Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PAC Academy 1 – 0 Nsuopun Fidelity

PAC Academy beat Nsuopun Fidelity 1-0 in Division One League on September 28, 2025.