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PAC Academy vs New Edubiase — Division One League 2025

PAC Academy
PAC Academy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
New Edubiase
New Edubiase
11/9/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PAC Academy52%
×Draw29%
New Edubiase20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAC Academy
1.33
New Edubiase
0.70

PAC Academy creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

PAC Academy
1.47
New Edubiase
0.73

allows per match

PAC Academy
0.67
New Edubiase
1.20

finishing

PAC Academy+0.00on par
New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAC Academy ↓

New Edubiase →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

PAC Academy or draw
80%
PAC Academy or New Edubiase
71%
Draw or New Edubiase
48%

Winning margin

PAC Academy wins by 2+
25%
New Edubiase wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PAC Academy 1+ goals
74%
PAC Academy 2+ goals
38%
PAC Academy 3+ goals
15%
New Edubiase 1+ goals
50%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
16%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

PAC Academy (draw refunded)
72%
New Edubiase (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAC Academy at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAC Academy attack 1.47 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + PAC Academy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

PAC Academy scores more
52%
level
29%
New Edubiase scores more
20%

PAC Academy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PAC Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PAC Academy vs New Edubiase

PAC Academy and New Edubiase drew 1-1 in Division One League on November 9, 2025.