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PAC Academy vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

PAC Academy
PAC Academy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
12/21/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PAC Academy54%
×Draw28%
Elmina Sharks18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAC Academy
1.37
Elmina Sharks
0.67

PAC Academy creates 104% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

PAC Academy
1.47
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

PAC Academy
0.67
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

PAC Academy+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAC Academy ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

PAC Academy or draw
82%
PAC Academy or Elmina Sharks
72%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
46%

Winning margin

PAC Academy wins by 2+
26%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PAC Academy 1+ goals
75%
PAC Academy 2+ goals
40%
PAC Academy 3+ goals
16%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
49%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
15%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

PAC Academy (draw refunded)
75%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAC Academy at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAC Academy attack 1.47 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + PAC Academy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

PAC Academy scores more
54%
level
28%
Elmina Sharks scores more
18%

PAC Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PAC Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PAC Academy vs Elmina Sharks

PAC Academy beat Elmina Sharks 2-1 in Division One League on December 21, 2025.