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P-Iirot vs PKKU — Suomen Cup 2018

P-Iirot
P-Iirot
FT
0 – 1
PKKU
PKKU
9/13/2017Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundÄijänsuon Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

P-Iirot18%
×Draw20%
PKKU63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

P-Iirot
1.08
PKKU
2.21

PKKU creates 105% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

P-Iirot
1.50
PKKU
1.67

allows per match

P-Iirot
2.75
PKKU
0.67

finishing

P-Iirot+0.00on par
PKKU+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

P-Iirot ↓

PKKU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

P-Iirot or draw
37%
P-Iirot or PKKU
80%
Draw or PKKU
82%

Winning margin

P-Iirot wins by 2+
6%
PKKU wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals
66%
P-Iirot 2+ goals
29%
P-Iirot 3+ goals
10%
PKKU 1+ goals
89%
PKKU 2+ goals
65%
PKKU 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

P-Iirot (draw refunded)
22%
PKKU (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

P-Iirot at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

PKKU away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

P-Iirot attack 1.50 + PKKU defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

PKKU attack 1.67 + P-Iirot defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

P-Iirot scores more
18%
level
20%
PKKU scores more
63%

PKKU at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

P-Iirot 0 – 1 PKKU

PKKU beat P-Iirot 1-0 in Suomen Cup on September 13, 2017.

The match was played at Äijänsuon Stadion in Rauma.