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P-Iirot vs PIF — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

P-Iirot
P-Iirot
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
PIF
PIF
6/30/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 9Äijänsuon Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

P-Iirot51%
×Draw22%
PIF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

P-Iirot
1.92
PIF
1.33

P-Iirot creates 44% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 31 away

creates per match

P-Iirot
1.95
PIF
1.29

allows per match

P-Iirot
1.38
PIF
1.90

finishing

P-Iirot+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

P-Iirot ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

P-Iirot or draw
73%
P-Iirot or PIF
78%
Draw or PIF
49%

Winning margin

P-Iirot wins by 2+
29%
PIF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals
85%
P-Iirot 2+ goals
57%
P-Iirot 3+ goals
30%
PIF 1+ goals
74%
PIF 2+ goals
38%
PIF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

P-Iirot (draw refunded)
66%
PIF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

P-Iirot at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

PIF away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

P-Iirot attack 1.95 + PIF defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

PIF attack 1.29 + P-Iirot defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

P-Iirot scores more
51%
level
22%
PIF scores more
27%

P-Iirot at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "P-Iirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

P-Iirot 4 – 0 PIF

P-Iirot beat PIF 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 30, 2023.

The match was played at Äijänsuon Stadion in Rauma.