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P-Iirot vs Honka Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

P-Iirot
P-Iirot
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
7/8/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 10Äijänsuon Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

P-Iirot41%
×Draw24%
Honka Akatemia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

P-Iirot
1.63
Honka Akatemia
1.48

P-Iirot creates 10% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 56 away

creates per match

P-Iirot
1.95
Honka Akatemia
1.57

allows per match

P-Iirot
1.38
Honka Akatemia
1.30

finishing

P-Iirot+0.00on par
Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

P-Iirot ↓

Honka Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

P-Iirot or draw
65%
P-Iirot or Honka Akatemia
76%
Draw or Honka Akatemia
59%

Winning margin

P-Iirot wins by 2+
21%
Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals
80%
P-Iirot 2+ goals
48%
P-Iirot 3+ goals
22%
Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
77%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
43%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

P-Iirot (draw refunded)
54%
Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

P-Iirot at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

P-Iirot attack 1.95 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + P-Iirot defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

P-Iirot scores more
41%
level
24%
Honka Akatemia scores more
35%

P-Iirot at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "P-Iirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: P-Iirot 3–0 Honka Akatemia

P-Iirot beat Honka Akatemia 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Äijänsuon Stadion in Rauma.