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P-Iirot vs Futura — Suomen Cup 2018

P-Iirot
P-Iirot
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Futura
Futura
5/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundÄijänsuon Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

P-Iirot35%
×Draw21%
Futura44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

P-Iirot
1.88
Futura
2.13

Futura creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

P-Iirot
1.50
Futura
1.50

allows per match

P-Iirot
2.75
Futura
2.25

finishing

P-Iirot+0.00on par
Futura+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

P-Iirot ↓

Futura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

P-Iirot or draw
56%
P-Iirot or Futura
79%
Draw or Futura
65%

Winning margin

P-Iirot wins by 2+
18%
Futura wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals
85%
P-Iirot 2+ goals
56%
P-Iirot 3+ goals
29%
Futura 1+ goals
88%
Futura 2+ goals
63%
Futura 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

P-Iirot (draw refunded)
44%
Futura (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

P-Iirot at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Futura away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

P-Iirot attack 1.50 + Futura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Futura attack 1.50 + P-Iirot defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

P-Iirot scores more
35%
level
21%
Futura scores more
44%

Futura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Futura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

P-Iirot 5 – 1 Futura

P-Iirot beat Futura 5-1 in Suomen Cup on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Äijänsuon Stadion in Rauma.