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Oyonesa vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Villegas
Villegas
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oyonesa72%
×Draw17%
Villegas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
2.33
Villegas
0.76

Oyonesa creates 207% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 46 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Villegas
3.04

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
89%
Oyonesa or Villegas
83%
Draw or Villegas
28%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
49%
Villegas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
90%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
67%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
41%
Villegas 1+ goals
53%
Villegas 2+ goals
18%
Villegas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
87%
Villegas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.33

Villegas attack 0.57 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Oyonesa scores more
72%
level
17%
Villegas scores more
11%

Oyonesa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Oyonesa 3–1 Villegas

Oyonesa beat Villegas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.