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Oyonesa vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
CANC
00:00
Varea
Varea
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Oyonesa35%
×Draw26%
Varea39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
1.29
Varea
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 108 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Varea
0.97

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
61%
Oyonesa or Varea
74%
Draw or Varea
65%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
15%
Varea wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
72%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
37%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
14%
Varea 1+ goals
75%
Varea 2+ goals
40%
Varea 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
47%
Varea (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Varea attack 1.81 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oyonesa scores more
35%
level
26%
Varea scores more
39%

Varea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oyonesa vs Varea — Match Preview

Oyonesa face Varea on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oyonesa host Varea at Oion Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.