Oyonesa 1–1 Tedeón: Result & Stats

Oyonesa

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tedeón

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oyonesa62%

×Draw22%

Tedeón16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OyonesaExpected goals in this matchTedeón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.87

Oyonesa

1.93

Tedeón

0.87

Oyonesa creates 122% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 49 away

1.62

creates per match

0.78

0.96

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Oyonesa

1.62

Tedeón

0.78

allows per match

Oyonesa

0.96

Tedeón

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par

Tedeón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Tedeón →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw

84%

Oyonesa or Tedeón

78%

Draw or Tedeón

38%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+

37%

Tedeón wins by 2+

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals

85%

Oyonesa 2+ goals

57%

Oyonesa 3+ goals

30%

Tedeón 1+ goals

58%

Tedeón 2+ goals

22%

Tedeón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)

79%

Tedeón (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Tedeón away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Tedeón defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.93

Tedeón attack 0.78 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oyonesa scores more

62%

level

22%

Tedeón scores more

16%

Oyonesa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff