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Oyonesa vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
River Ebro
River Ebro
9/25/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Oyonesa55%
×Draw23%
River Ebro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
1.77
River Ebro
1.02

Oyonesa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
78%
Oyonesa or River Ebro
77%
Draw or River Ebro
45%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
31%
River Ebro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
83%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
53%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
26%
River Ebro 1+ goals
64%
River Ebro 2+ goals
27%
River Ebro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
72%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oyonesa scores more
55%
level
23%
River Ebro scores more
22%

Oyonesa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Oyonesa 2–1 River Ebro

Oyonesa beat River Ebro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.