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Oyonesa vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 33Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oyonesa44%
×Draw25%
Racing Rioja30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
1.52
Racing Rioja
1.21

Oyonesa creates 26% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
70%
Oyonesa or Racing Rioja
75%
Draw or Racing Rioja
56%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
22%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
78%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
45%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
20%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
70%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
34%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
59%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oyonesa scores more
44%
level
25%
Racing Rioja scores more
30%

Oyonesa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Oyonesa 2–1 Racing Rioja

Oyonesa beat Racing Rioja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.