Oyonesa 1–0 Cenicero: Result & Stats

Oyonesa

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cenicero

12/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oyonesa75%

×Draw17%

Cenicero9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OyonesaExpected goals in this matchCenicero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.65

Oyonesa

2.31

Cenicero

0.65

Oyonesa creates 255% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

0.33

0.96

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Oyonesa

1.62

Cenicero

0.33

allows per match

Oyonesa

0.96

Cenicero

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par

Cenicero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Cenicero →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw

91%

Oyonesa or Cenicero

83%

Draw or Cenicero

25%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+

51%

Cenicero wins by 2+

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals

90%

Oyonesa 2+ goals

67%

Oyonesa 3+ goals

40%

Cenicero 1+ goals

48%

Cenicero 2+ goals

14%

Cenicero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)

89%

Cenicero (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Cenicero away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Cenicero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Cenicero attack 0.33 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Oyonesa scores more

75%

level

17%

Cenicero scores more

Oyonesa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff