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Oyonesa vs Calasancio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Calasancio
Calasancio
12/28/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oyonesa64%
×Draw21%
Calasancio15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
1.97
Calasancio
0.81

Oyonesa creates 143% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 29 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Calasancio
0.66

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Calasancio
2.31

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Calasancio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Calasancio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
85%
Oyonesa or Calasancio
79%
Draw or Calasancio
36%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
39%
Calasancio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
86%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
58%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
31%
Calasancio 1+ goals
56%
Calasancio 2+ goals
19%
Calasancio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
81%
Calasancio (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Calasancio away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Calasancio defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.97

Calasancio attack 0.66 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Oyonesa scores more
64%
level
21%
Calasancio scores more
15%

Oyonesa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Oyonesa 4–0 Calasancio

Oyonesa beat Calasancio 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.