Oyonesa 2–1 Calahorra: Result & Stats

Oyonesa

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Calahorra

10/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Oyonesa33%

×Draw25%

Calahorra43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OyonesaExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.56

Oyonesa

1.34

Calahorra

1.56

Calahorra creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 18 away

1.62

creates per match

2.17

0.96

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Oyonesa

1.62

Calahorra

2.17

allows per match

Oyonesa

0.96

Calahorra

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Calahorra →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw

57%

Oyonesa or Calahorra

75%

Draw or Calahorra

67%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+

14%

Calahorra wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals

74%

Oyonesa 2+ goals

39%

Oyonesa 3+ goals

15%

Calahorra 1+ goals

79%

Calahorra 2+ goals

46%

Calahorra 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)

44%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Calahorra away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Calahorra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Calahorra attack 2.17 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oyonesa scores more

33%

level

25%

Calahorra scores more

43%

Calahorra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff