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Oyem AC vs Pélican — Championnat D1 2022

Oyem AC
Oyem AC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pélican
Pélican
4/25/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oyem AC40%
×Draw27%
Pélican33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyem AC
1.31
Pélican
1.15

Oyem AC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Oyem AC
1.23
Pélican
1.29

allows per match

Oyem AC
1.00
Pélican
1.39

finishing

Oyem AC+0.00on par
Pélican+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyem AC ↓

Pélican →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oyem AC or draw
67%
Oyem AC or Pélican
73%
Draw or Pélican
60%

Winning margin

Oyem AC wins by 2+
18%
Pélican wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oyem AC 1+ goals
73%
Oyem AC 2+ goals
38%
Oyem AC 3+ goals
14%
Pélican 1+ goals
68%
Pélican 2+ goals
32%
Pélican 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oyem AC (draw refunded)
55%
Pélican (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyem AC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Pélican away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyem AC attack 1.23 + Pélican defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pélican attack 1.29 + Oyem AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oyem AC scores more
40%
level
27%
Pélican scores more
33%

Oyem AC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oyem AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oyem AC vs Pélican

Oyem AC beat Pélican 3-1 in Championnat D1 on April 25, 2026.