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Oyem AC vs Ogooue FC — Championnat D1 2022

Oyem AC
Oyem AC
FT
1 – 1
Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
5/2/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oyem AC40%
×Draw30%
Ogooue FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyem AC
1.11
Ogooue FC
0.93

Oyem AC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Oyem AC
1.23
Ogooue FC
0.85

allows per match

Oyem AC
1.00
Ogooue FC
1.00

finishing

Oyem AC+0.00on par
Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyem AC ↓

Ogooue FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oyem AC or draw
70%
Oyem AC or Ogooue FC
70%
Draw or Ogooue FC
60%

Winning margin

Oyem AC wins by 2+
16%
Ogooue FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oyem AC 1+ goals
67%
Oyem AC 2+ goals
30%
Oyem AC 3+ goals
10%
Ogooue FC 1+ goals
61%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
24%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oyem AC (draw refunded)
57%
Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyem AC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Ogooue FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyem AC attack 1.23 + Ogooue FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ogooue FC attack 0.85 + Oyem AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oyem AC scores more
40%
level
30%
Ogooue FC scores more
30%

Oyem AC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oyem AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Oyem AC 1–1 Ogooue FC

Oyem AC and Ogooue FC drew 1-1 in Championnat D1 on May 2, 2026.